BATESVILLE — The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Day 1 Categorical Outlook valid through early Wednesday morning, showing a Slight Risk (yellow, level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across much of Arkansas, including Independence County and north-central sections.
The outlook highlights scattered strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon through evening as a cold front and upper-level system move through the region. Primary threats include damaging wind gusts, large hail (quarter- to half-dollar size or larger in stronger cells), and a low but non-zero chance of a few tornadoes.
The Slight Risk area stretches from parts of Oklahoma and north Texas through Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and into the Ohio Valley, with the highest coverage of severe potential focused farther north and east (Enhanced Risk in yellow-orange over the Midwest). Southern and central Arkansas fall in the Marginal to Slight zones, meaning isolated severe storms are possible but widespread severe weather is less likely here compared to areas near Chicago, Indianapolis, and St. Louis.
A Marginal Risk (green) covers much of the Southeast and portions of the Plains, while most of the country remains in low or no severe threat.
For Independence County: Storms could develop Tuesday afternoon into evening along or ahead of the front. Stay weather-aware, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. Have multiple ways to receive warnings (phone alerts, NOAA Weather Radio, local media), and be ready for gusty winds, hail, or brief heavy rain. Flooding from repeated rounds of rain remains a concern in some spots.
We’ll monitor updates from NWS Little Rock as the day progresses—conditions can shift quickly this time of year. Stay safe! ⚡
