A sharp uptick in severe weather activity is expected across the Great Plains as a major atmospheric pattern shift takes hold in the latter half of April. Forecasters warn that a large upper-level trough forming over the Mountain West between April 18–20 could trigger a classic tornado-favorable setup across Tornado Alley.
This evolving system is expected to generate a powerful low-level jet, drawing warm, moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico and fueling the type of atmospheric instability and wind shear needed for supercell thunderstorms and tornado development.
Tornado Season Gears Up for Peak
Meteorologists and storm researchers are preparing for an active storm chase and science mission, as this system marks the beginning of what could be a particularly volatile peak season.
With El Niño conditions beginning to form in the eastern Tropical Pacific, experts believe the severe weather season could not only be more intense but also longer-lasting. Historically, El Niño years have been known to enhance spring storm activity in the southern and central U.S., and this year appears to be following suit.
Forecast Timeline: Central Plains to Texas
Long-range models suggest severe weather may begin impacting the central Plains as early as late next week. From there, the threat is expected to shift southward into Oklahoma and Texas heading into the final days of April.
The most intense episodes of severe weather—featuring damaging winds, large hail, and tornado potential—are likely to occur in late April and stretch into early May.
Residents across the Great Plains are urged to review their emergency preparedness plans, stay updated on forecasts, and remain weather-aware as conditions evolve. The next few weeks could bring some of the most significant severe weather of the season.
