NORMAN, Okla. — The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Thursday, January 8, covering parts of Oklahoma, southern Kansas, the ArkLaTex, and the lower to middle Mississippi Valley. This outlook signals that isolated strong to severe storms are possible, though widespread or significant severe weather is not anticipated.
The threat begins Thursday morning and persists into the evening and overnight hours.
Affected Areas
The Marginal Risk area includes central and eastern Oklahoma, southern Kansas, northern Texas, western Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and portions of Missouri and Mississippi. Cities in or near the risk zone include Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita, Shreveport, Texarkana, and Little Rock.
Key Atmospheric Ingredients
- Lift: A negatively tilted upper-level trough—oriented northwest to southeast—will enhance rising motion as it tracks through the region.
- Moisture & Instability: Increasing low-level moisture will push instability values near or slightly above 500 J/kg—modest by spring standards but notable for early January, enough to fuel thunderstorms.
- Wind Shear: Strong deep-layer shear will support storm organization and longevity.
Limiting Factors
- Elevated Storms: Much of the activity, especially morning storms, is expected to remain elevated above a stable near-surface layer, reducing the potential for surface-based severe hazards.
- Tornado Threat: Very low due to the elevated nature of storms. Only if later-day storms become surface-based (possible in central Oklahoma or southeast Kansas) could isolated tornadoes become a concern—currently uncertain.
Primary Threats
- Damaging wind gusts — the main concern from any stronger storms.
- Small hail — possible, particularly in persistent cells.
Bottom Line
Thursday’s setup supports isolated strong to locally severe storms capable of brief damaging winds and small hail, but weak instability and the likelihood of elevated storms keep the overall threat limited and conditional.
This is a “stay aware” situation rather than one requiring major concern. Residents in the risk area should keep an eye on the forecast and have a way to receive warnings.
Monitor the Storm Prediction Center (spc.noaa.gov) and your local National Weather Service office for the latest watches, warnings, and updates as details evolve.
